These past few days I can't stop pondering upon an issue (might be boring for some, I might add) that is no alien towards Malaysians; crazy house prices!
It all started when I stumbled upon this short film by accident...
Ok, for those already in the know, the message put forth may not be as shocking as to those who doesn't.
Apparently, our generation is poorer than that of our grandparents' ! At a glance, it seems impossible as we're earning much more than them back then, right? BUT with the increase in commodity prices, either in tandem.....or worse, faster than the increase in salary offered by employers every year!
In short, INFLATION has brought us to what we are today; Less buying power when in fact we are earning more than the previous generation did.
From the video I came to know about the term 'Property Bubble' - so noob of me, kan? - anyway there's a possibility it could happen...I'm sure a thought like this (or similar one) would pop into your mind,
"Well, when the property bubble burst, then I can afford to bigger houses lah".
The grim reality is that, it is actually a domino effect in that banks will also won't be willing to be as 'generous' as they're right now - providing up to 95% loan to buy houses/properties. They may only give a 70% loan...which is a bad news to people who doesn't have the 30% ready upfront..to lock in the house.
Imagine this: A RM100k house. For a 90% loan, We need only 10% cash for the downpayment which is RM10k - still manageable. But for a 70% loan? We need 30% upfront which is a *gasp* staggering RM30k!
Ehmahgerrdddd
I was intrigued by the views posed by one of the interviewee; Dr Ernest Y Y Cheong. A simple Google search revealed to me one that he's a columnist for a pullout in New Straits Times; RED - Real Estate & Decor.
As I was fascinated and were ready to dwell further into this topic, I started reading one of his articles which lead to the previous ones up to the latest, since they are linked to each other.
Thanks to his writings, at least I've got a clearer picture about the property industry in Malaysia and hence, this blogpost as I feel the need to share it with whoever who are interested in the topic...Hey, it doesn't hurt to know more, right??
Below are the links to (I think) all of Dr Ernest's articles that I have found so far, along with a brief summary, a gist of what the each of them talks about.
*above the summaries are the links to the respective articles*
The Malaysian Property Dilemma - How did we get here?
- This one dwells upon the declining living standards of two persons in the same job position roughly 30 years apart (1980 - 2012) as a practical example and the Malaysian government's noble initiative in promoting Home ownership among Malaysians in the Malaysian Plan and the dawn of the Malaysian Home Ownership Miracle.
The Malaysian Property Dilemma - What can we do?
- This July 20 article talks about the economic forces of 'supply and demand' which affects the property prices in the country and the 'liberalisation' of housing loans by the bank to follow suit the Federal Government's policy of the day. It also ponders upon the possibility that property prices will tumble due to the economic recession similar with that of the 1997/1998, the stalemate in selling/buying houses along with some simple advices when deciding on obtaining one.
Stubbornly high property prices in Malaysia
- The affordability test among three types of families in Malaysia income wise; High, Middle and Low are viewed in-depth in terms of the ways they manage themselves in paying the obliged monthly payment of housing loans through means of "extra-curricular" activities (stock exchange, MLMs, etc.) and how the Global Recession would affect them.
Property Sellers' Dilemma
- The stalemate brought by the buyer/seller in reducing the asking price of the properties is putting sellers at a dilemma as they can't afford not to sell and at the same time they're also in the state of can't afford to sell. Dr Ernest also readied his reader for his next article on what the PM should do to procure a 'soft landing' for the impending "Property Market Crash" so as to reduce its impact, illustrated in the example as the "Pilot and his passengers".
The moment of truth: How do we avert a disaster?
- This article holds the premise that by diagnosing the Malaysian Property Market, then the PM (as a proverbial pilot) could deduce methods to avert the property 'crash landing' by providing Malaysians who are currently drowning in housing debt with the "bitter pill" as a remedy.
Armageddon in property
- The bitter medicine is revealed here by proposing the 'loan repayment holiday' from the lending banks. The Bank Negara's current rule for NPL (non-performing loans) are also touched upon and the possibility of 'oversupply' of foreclosed properties - made worse by Malaysians' attitude towards auctioned properties will trigger the "property crash" when the market is flooded with them. Tell-tale signs of an impending recession are also stated within along with the writer's response towards the "fear monger" branding by some of the readers.
FOCUS: How to survive a bank foreclosure?
- The five lines of defense a defaulter could use to avoid being homeless i.e. using the law to be on their sides are provided in this article. The subject is a bit dry to my liking, though but nevertheless, still important.
FOCUS: 10 Steps to financial ruin
- This article demonstrates the steps which were trodden by both individuals and countries that went into financial ruin some of which are poor risk assessments, acquisition of properties through speculative intentions, and finished projects failure to name some.
The Haven - One man's journey to hell and back
- Dr. Ernest interviewed The Haven's Co-Principal, Peter Chan about this project which was given a premature 'death sentence' by valuers and banks, made worse when the rumours of it were passed around buyers, and follows the uphill battle fought by Peter to turn the tables before it was too late.
There are many factors contributing to the 'Property Bubble' and there are also measures to avert or provide a 'soft landing' for it.
And to decide whether Malaysian property industry is going through the early stages of it, would require one to read from more than one source...not just the articles linked here, but could also be a good start.
Speculators who obtain properties as a means of getting an extra side income are the 'culprits' behind the skyrocketing prices of houses today.
The elites keep on getting richer day by day, while the working-class citizen stays the same or declines.
And the irony in this Capitalist system is that, the working class is actually are the contributors to the fortune gained by the Elites. Funny, right??
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| The Haven, minutes away from Ipoh.
[UPDATED]
Only NOW does the government through Bank Negara got that 'sudden realisation' (my italics) that our economy is crumbling due to (mainly) the policies that they've introduced e.g. being over-protective over the national car projects (P1 and P2) and the speculation of property which has gone out of control.
Now we all should brace ourselves for the credit bubble pulak.
Malaysian Insider: "Credit Bubble Imminent As Malaysia's Household Debt Rises"
Oh, and please do read the comments also.
Ends.
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